Carriers say rates and demand felt softer in Q3
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In the third quarter, 40% of carriers said their rates were lower than a year ago. In the second quarter, only 20% said the same. Optimism slipped too, with the share expecting higher demand falling from 66% to 44%.
The Bloomberg & Truckstop.com Q3 Carrier Survey asked 370 carriers about rates, volumes, costs, and outlook. Their answers on rates and volumes came back close to first-quarter responses, erasing most of the second-quarter improvement.
Fuel is also the biggest challenge carriers reported, and only one in four plan to buy or replace tractors. Put together, the answers show carriers who are more cautious about the months ahead than they were in the second quarter.
Q3 2026 carrier survey at a glance
The Bloomberg & Truckstop.com Carrier Survey polls carriers each quarter on rates, volumes, costs, and outlook. Most respondents run a single truck.
| Share of carriers | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reported lower rates than a year ago | 40% | 20% | 40% |
| Reported higher volumes than a year ago | 28% | 50% | 31% |
| Expect demand to rise | 70% | 66% | 44% |
| Expect rates to rise | 65% | 53% | 44% |
| Plan to buy or replace tractors | 34% | 41% | 25% |
How did rates and volumes change in Q3?
In Q2, about half of carriers (49% on rates, 50% on volumes) said both were up from a year earlier. In Q3, that fell to 29% and 31%. Rates are measured as revenue per mile, excluding fuel surcharges.
Reports of lower rates and volumes grew just as sharply. Lower rates went from one in five carriers in Q2 to two in five in Q3, matching Q1, and lower volumes more than doubled to 30%.
Volumes came in nearly even, with 31% of carriers reporting more loads than a year ago and 30% reporting fewer. Rates tilted down, with 40% reporting lower rates and 29% reporting higher.
Carriers reported steady volumes but lower rates, and that squeezes margin. Loads at a lower rate per mile leave less after fuel, insurance, and the truck payment, even when the number of loads holds steady.
In carriers’ answers, Q2 stands out as a one-quarter break from the softer reports in Q1 and Q3. A single strong quarter is a poor reason to turn down freight that clears your cost per mile, and the Q3 answers show why.
What do carriers expect for demand and rates?
Optimism took the larger hit. Over the next three to six months, fewer than half of carriers (44%) expect demand to rise, down from two in three in Q2.
The share expecting higher rates fell 9 points from Q2 to 44%, which still beats the 21% who expect declines.
Revenue expectations settled in the middle, with 40% of carriers expecting flat revenue, 35% expecting an increase, and 25% expecting a decline.
The capacity answers shifted too. About two in five carriers expect a looser market, with more trucks than loads, up from one in five in Q2. The share expecting tighter conditions fell from 32% to 21%.
When most carriers expected rates to keep climbing, holding out for a better load made sense. With expectations falling, the call at booking carries more weight, and a posted rate only helps if you know where it sits against the lane.
Checking current market rates for the lane lets you tell a fair offer from a low one and counter with data before you commit.
How much is fuel hurting carriers?
Fuel is the biggest cost problem carriers reported. Carriers ranked five business challenges from 1 (most challenging) to 5, and fuel prices averaged 1.97, compared with 2.24 in Q2 and 2.39 in Q1.
Diesel prices explain the ranking. The U.S. average for on-highway diesel was $6.20 a gallon the week of October 5, according to EIA data, about $2.49 higher than a year ago.
Insurance moved the other way, slipping from second place in Q2 to third, behind broker issues.
Cost expectations stayed firm, with 45% of carriers expecting prices to keep rising sharply over the next six months, up from 20% in Q2, and another 32% expecting moderate increases.
A fuel management routine starts with knowing what each run will burn before you accept the load. Fuel Desk, on the Advanced plan and above, supports fuel planning and IFTA tracking, so fuel is part of the decision.
Are carriers still buying trucks?
Fewer carriers are. Only 25% plan to buy or replace tractors over the next three to six months, down from 41% in Q2 and 34% in Q1.
Among carriers holding off, 28% named weak demand as the top reason, up from 17% in Q2. Equipment costs were the top reason for 18%, down from 24%. The truck payment still ranks among the largest fixed lines in an owner-operator’s monthly costs.
Fewer purchases limit how fast capacity can grow, the argument our Q2 post made for staying in through a thin stretch. Q3 respondents are less convinced.
What does the Q3 freight market outlook mean for carriers?
Carriers described a strong Q2, and their Q3 answers gave most of it back. Reports of rates and volumes sit near Q1 responses, expectations fell, fuel pulled further ahead as the top cost, and equipment plans pulled back.
The practical takeaway is to check every load against current rate data and put a fuel number on every run before you book. Both calls matter more when carriers report softer conditions and diesel is at $6.20.
Fuel is due at the pump long before many brokers pay, so fuel costs and cash flow belong in the same plan.
The Truckstop Load Board brings live loads, fuel planning, and Backhaul Search for reloads into one place, so booking, fuel, and reload decisions happen together instead of across separate tools.
Frequently Asked Questions
Updated October 8, 2026. Survey data from the Bloomberg & Truckstop.com Q3 Carrier Survey, as of October 7, 2026. 370 respondents.
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