What four freight leaders expect from the 2027 freight market

Rates are up, but demand is not the reason. Capacity keeps leaving the market while costs for insurance, diesel, and tolls keep climbing. Brokers and carriers are both planning 2027 around the same pressure.

Truckstop’s 2027 Outlook webinar brought together Andrew Smith of Circle Logistics, Pam Polyak of Polyak Trucking, Logistics and Consulting, Alyssa Correale of Tin Goose Logistics, and transportation economist Noël Perry. Sean Dehan, who runs strategy and operations at Truckstop, hosted. Here is what they see coming and what to plan for now.

What is driving rates up if demand is flat?

Truckstop data shows load-to-truck ratios up 25 percent year over year and spot rates up 40 to 60 percent, while contract rates have climbed in the low teens. Enforcement, regulation, and liability pressure have pushed trucks out, and some shippers and brokerages have cut their carrier pools by 50 to 75 percent from a year ago.

Alyssa describes a market that reacts to any change in demand. “The pressure on the market is so real with capacity continuing to exit, and any lull in demand will certainly flip the spot market on its head.”

Noël points out that freight is growing around 3 percent, well short of the 2021 peak, while the industry has recovered almost all of its cost increases. “If you’re not making money in this market, you’re in the wrong business.”

Will insurance decide who stays in business?

Insurance is the next squeeze, especially for small fleets. According to ATRI’s most recent Analysis of the Operational Costs of Trucking, insurance prices have increased 23% since 2021. Pam points to double-digit increases for one- and two-truck operators that are hard to absorb without pricing out of the market.

In Pam’s words, “insurance costs are actually going to be the number one reason small fleets shut down.”

Safety record is also becoming a pricing factor. Insurers already charge small fleets and owner-operators about twice as much as large fleets, and Noël expects the gap between careful and careless operators to widen. “The insurance costs of the people who are permissive are going to go up much more rapidly.”

For carriers, safety and compliance now affect what coverage costs, so it pays to know your state’s carrier insurance requirements. For brokers, it is one more reason to look closely at who is hauling your freight.

Why does pricing discipline matter when diesel falls?

Diesel is propping up rates today. The average cost of diesel per gallon in October 2026 was $6.25, against a historical range of about $3.50 to $4 a gallon. Noël expects the decline to be slow, and he sees the bigger risk once it starts.

Fuel increases strengthen a carrier’s hand, so carriers have historically asked for a little more than the fuel cost. On the way down, they give back the fuel and the extra. Noël’s warning for 2027 is to “maintain pricing discipline in a difficult pricing environment.”

Pam has a safeguard that comes from experience. After 2008 and 2009, she built fuel surcharges into her agreements, and she has had no customer pushback on them.

Where will rates go in 2027?

Every panelist expects rates to rise, just not at last year’s pace.

• Pam Polyak: Up in single digits on contract freight, with spot rates jumping.
• Andrew Smith: Up, close to double digits.
• Noël Perry: Slightly up.
• Alyssa Correale: Up, with the first quarter as the wild card. Winter weather and a wet southern half of the US tied to El Niño could tighten capacity fast.

Capacity is where views differ. Alyssa expects trucks to keep leaving.

Noël has answered capacity questions since 1976 and says only once, in late 2020 and early 2021, was there not enough capacity to move the freight. He expects utilization closer to normal by the end of 2027.

Supply-driven markets also move city by city. Andrew described trucks vanishing from a place like Houston for three to five days, then reappearing. Teams that watch the market daily avoid getting caught off guard.

What should carriers be thinking about now?

Start with the costs that never reach the shipper. Tolls are a clear example. Illinois tolls are set to rise 30 percent on January 1, and Pam Polyak runs her trucks between Wisconsin and Illinois every day.

She knows who pays that bill. “You’re not going to get a 30% increase from the shipper. It’s just not happening.”

So Pam is going after the part she can control, which is how her trucks run. She connected AI tools to her TMS, ELD, and I-PASS records to see how each run performed over the past six months. Now she can pick routes that cut tolls, out-of-route miles, and unscheduled stops. When 20 trucks run the same corridor, those savings add up quickly.

Carriers with the same records can ask the same questions. Which routes cost the most? Where do extra miles and stops pile up? The answers show where to tighten before the next cost increase lands.

What should brokers be thinking about now?

Growth will not come from adding headcount and trucks. Andrew Smith points out that tonnage has been flat since 2020, and the recipe that worked for the last decade no longer does. He says every brokerage leader should ask, “What are we doing differently? What is our value prop? How do we do more with the same amount of resources that we have now?”

Circle Logistics has two answers. The first is showing shippers real safety and compliance data on the carriers hauling their freight. The second is speed. When the market moves fast, Andrew says, “the only right answer is to quote fast and ask for feedback.”

Alyssa Correale adds the shipper view. She spent most of her career on the shipper side, and she would drop the yearly full-network bid. “That large full-network bid annually, where you turn your network upside down every single year, just doesn’t work.”

Her reason is consistency. Alyssa points out that brokers carry real liability for the carriers they select, and changing the carrier base every year makes good decisions harder.

The questions apply to any brokerage. What makes your company different, how fast can you respond, and how consistent are the carriers you put on a shipper’s freight?

How are freight leaders using AI?

The panelists use AI for specific jobs, and the examples are concrete.

Andrew Smith says AI at Circle Logistics goes well beyond answering phones. His team uses it to build code, new tools, and internal workflows so each person can do twice the activity and spend twice the time on the phone solving problems with shippers. It also helps flag supply risks at the market level.

Alyssa Correale adds a caution. She believes bragging about AI costs credibility, especially with carriers. Andrew makes a similar point: customers judge the service, not the technology behind it.

The panel’s takeaway is to use AI to give your people more time and better information, then let customers judge the service.

Where to start

The panelists did not agree on every number, but they agreed on the direction. Rates rise, costs climb faster for some than others, and the businesses that hold pricing steady and control expenses are best placed for whatever 2027 brings. Pick one cost you can control this quarter, and price every load against current market data.

Truckstop puts the load board, rate data, and AI tools in one place, so routine work like searching, pricing, and booking takes less of your day. That leaves more time for the calls and decisions that move your business forward.

The full conversation has more from each panelist on rates, safety, and planning for the first quarter. Watch the replays and walk into 2027 with a plan.

WATCH THE REPLAY