2026 Freight Predictions from 9 Industry Experts

The freight industry heads into 2026 with no shortage of uncertainty — rates, fraud, identity security, AI adoption, and regulatory shifts are all top of mind. We asked seven industry leaders to share what they see coming next year. Their answers reflect a mix of caution, optimism, and hard-earned perspective from inside the market.

Below, each expert offers one clear prediction followed by a short explanation of why they believe it will happen.

1. Scott Cornell, TAPA Chairman

Prediction: Cargo theft will likely stay near record highs in 2026, with thieves evolving their tactics as the industry steps up collaboration and security efforts.

“2025 theft levels look nearly flat year over year but flat at record highs. Strategic theft will continue to grow though it will not overtake straight theft, and pilferage will remain an issue especially across regions like Arizona and California. This requires an all hands-on deck security culture. The solutions already exist, and success will come from applying them together.”

2. Sean Dehan, Truckstop.com

Prediction: The Department of Transportation may consider a rate or pricing floor for certain types of freight, commodities, and distances.

“The DOT has come out strong in 2025 with initiatives to improve safety and security of the transportation industry. An increase in barriers to entry may require the government to create stability and predictability for legitimate, qualified motor carriers through regulation that sets soft pricing floors to ensure minimum levels of profitability for motor carrier businesses.”

3. Chris Jolly, The Freight Coach

Prediction: If current policy changes move forward, freight fraud and theft could get exponentially worse in 2026.

“This depends on how aggressively policies around ELD and visa suspension are enacted. If disruption hits the driver pool, bad actors could rush to exploit chaos grabbing what they can as fast as they can. Even one unstable policy rollout could accelerate fraud instead of slowing it.”

4. Sean Smith, Denim by Truckstop.com

Prediction: Subsidized AI pricing will taper off and buyers will begin to feel the true cost of sustainable AI.

“Many remember the days when Uber entered markets with extremely low prices to gain share with a powerful VC war chest. It feels like a similar time to today as technology companies are shelling out billions of dollars in capital expense, while I pay $20/month for a super-intern available 24/7/365.

Business owners and finance leaders are going to need to be sharper about how these expenses impact their ROI, and when it makes sense to re-evaluate.”

5. Jeremy Baksht, Catena

Prediction: By the end of 2026 trust scores powered by real time telematics and identity data will become a standard field on load boards and TMS platforms.

“The next phase of fraud prevention moves beyond paperwork and static checks into live, device-level data. Brokers and shippers will increasingly rely on behavioral signals where a truck has actually been, how it operates, and how consistently it performs to decide who gets the load. As these trust scores become standardized and portable across platforms, good carriers will be rewarded faster and bad actors will find it harder to hide.”

6. Dale Prax, FreightValidate and Truckstop.com

Prediction: In 2026 the biggest progress against freight fraud will come from real industry alignment on onboarding and identity verification supported by FMCSA modernization.

“I believe fraud has pushed the industry past its breaking point. The major platforms know they can’t fight this alone, and they’re already moving toward real alignment. I also see FMCSA leaning in — the new Administrator clearly wants closer collaboration with industry and a stronger identity framework. When the industry and the agency want the same outcome, 2026 becomes the year it finally happens.”

7. Todd Waldron, Truckstop.com

Prediction: Positive market momentum will arrive sooner than expected driven by fundamentals with AI adoption improving efficiency without replacing relationships.

“AI will streamline workflows but the industry will still rely on relationships to drive service and margin. A tough winter capacity tightening from carrier exits and immigration policy shifts affecting CDL supply could push rates upward. I expect meaningful momentum by late Q2 as these forces take hold.”

8. Charles Gracey, Broker Carrier Summit 

Prediction: 2026 will be a turning point for trucking – a crossroads where relationships, verification, and people-first partnerships determine who succeeds and who struggles. 

“2026 isn’t just another year on the calendar — it’s going to be one of the most significant turning points in trucking in decades, maybe ever. We’re entering a true crossroads where preparation, verification, and integrity will matter more than sheer size or market positioning. Success will be determined by people — by those who treat people like people. Transactional freight is fading and relationship-driven freight is on the rise, and the future belongs to companies that operate with transparency, respect, and reliability.”  

9. Kevin Rutherford, Let’s Truck 

Prediction: In 2026, a significant share of owner-operators will exit the market, setting up the tightest capacity environment since the pandemic boom. 

“I don’t like to make predictions, but here’s a big one for 2026: one in three owner-operators running today won’t make it to 2027. Authority closures, insurance costs, and rate pressure are going to thin the herd like we haven’t seen since 2019. But here’s what nobody’s talking about — if you survive, you’re walking into the tightest capacity market since the pandemic boom. The ones who white-knuckle through this are going to see rates they haven’t seen in a very long time. 2026 isn’t the year trucking dies. 2026 is the year trucking decides who gets to stay.”  

Where the industry goes next

Whether 2026 brings stability or disruption, freight will be shaped by identity security, policy shifts, carrier availability, and how quickly companies adapt. Fraud tactics are evolving, AI is maturing, and visibility is becoming non-negotiable. The leaders we spoke with see one common theme: companies that prepare now will move faster when the market turns.

If you want to get ahead, Truckstop.com is where smarter planning begins. Truckstop gives brokers and carriers the tools they need to operate confidently, from finding vetted freight on the load board to improving cash flow with factoring to reducing risk with carrier vetting and Risk Factors. Truckstop.com is built to help you book loads, verify partners, manage capital, and grow without guesswork.

If the market shifts in 2026, your systems will matter. Set yourself up ahead of the curve — stronger, safer, and ready.

Explore Truckstop.com to start planning for the year ahead.